Global Business Brokerage Growth by Region (2025–2035)
Last updated: 9 November 2025
Short version: Brokerage expands in every region through 2035, but for different reasons. Advanced economies are driven by an ageing owner base and succession gaps; emerging markets are driven by consolidation and cross‑border capital. The steepest structural tailwinds sit in Japan/East Asia (forced succession) and Southeast Asia (roll‑ups + inbound buyers). North America remains the deepest, most liquid market. Europe grows as succession policy and bankability improve. MEA/LatAm rise unevenly, pulled by diversification capital and family offices.
Operator’s rule: Pick your region and build a repeatable engine: defensible valuation → tight packaging (teaser/CIM/data room) → pre‑qualified buyer lists → lender/bank relationships → LOI‑to‑close project management.
Table of Contents
Forecast Method & Assumptions
We forecast brokerage revenue using a bottom‑up TAM approach: estimated annual SME ownership transfers × average deal value × typical broker fee (Main Street 8–12% of transaction value) × broker participation rate. We triangulate with demographics (owner age/retirement), capital (PE/family office dry powder, lender appetite), and policy (succession platforms, transfer rules). All figures are ranges given country definitional differences and informality.
Reading ranges: CAGRs shown are structural ranges for 2025–2035 under a neutral macro path (gradual rate normalisation, stable bank regulation). See Scenarios for bull/bear adjustments.
North America (US/Canada)
Drivers: ageing owners, deep buyer capital, SBA/BDC lending Headwinds: price expectations, credit cycles Outlook: strong & liquid
| Item | 2025 baseline | 2035 outlook | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Owner demographics | Large share of employer‑firm owners are 55+ | Retirements accelerate exits | High succession pressure creates steady deal flow |
| Annual small‑biz transactions | ~9–12k recorded on major US platforms; true volume higher | Stable to rising | Many deals close off‑platform; broker share varies by size |
| Brokerage revenue CAGR | — | +6% to +9% | Assumes normalised rates and robust buyer demand |
| Key actions | Own a niche (HVAC/blue‑collar services, healthcare, multi‑unit, home services). Build lender partnerships and buyer lists; systematise CIM + diligence. | ||
Europe
Drivers: ageing Mittelstand, state‑backed succession programmes Headwinds: stricter labour/transfer rules, bank process Outlook: steady structural growth
| Item | 2025 baseline | 2035 outlook | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Succession gap | Elevated in Germany, Italy, CEE; many firms lack successors | Policy + platforms expand transfers | Expect rising use of brokerage‑style advisory |
| Financing | Bank‑led, conservative | Gradual liberalisation via guarantees & mezz | Country‑specific variability remains |
| Brokerage revenue CAGR | — | +5% to +8% | Higher where succession programmes mature |
| Key actions | Tie into national succession platforms; specialise in labour‑intensive due‑diligence and employee/works‑council communication. | ||
Japan & Advanced East Asia
Drivers: no‑successor crisis Headwinds: owner price anchors, rural closures Outlook: fastest structural growth
| Item | 2025 baseline | 2035 outlook | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Succession pipeline | ~1M+ SMEs facing owner retirement with no successor (JP) | High forced‑to‑sell or close | Succession deals dominate small‑cap M&A |
| Buyer capital | Domestic PE + corporate cash rising; inbound interest | Active buy‑and‑build | Cross‑border into and out of Japan increases |
| Brokerage revenue CAGR | — | +7% to +12% | Assumes policy support and steady credit |
| Key actions | Stand up a succession desk: valuation triage, bank packages, management handover plans, rural buyer matching. | ||
Southeast Asia
Drivers: consolidation, foreign buyers, digital marketplaces Headwinds: informality, documentation, financing friction Outlook: steep, from a smaller base
| Item | 2025 baseline | 2035 outlook | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deal types | Service roll‑ups, healthcare, F&B, export manufacturing | More cross‑border buy‑and‑build | Japanese/Korean/SG buyers active; China + India selective |
| Process maturity | Variable; improving | More formal brokerage & data‑room standards | Owner education + lender partnerships key |
| Brokerage revenue CAGR | — | +8% to +12% | Top‑tier in SG/MY/TH/VN corridors |
| Key actions | Cross‑border buyer lists, bilingual CIMs, forensic normalisation (cash economy), and bank/lender pre‑qualification. | ||
Middle East, Africa & Latin America
Drivers: diversification capital, family offices, new industry formation Headwinds: uneven rule‑of‑law, FX/rate shocks Outlook: moderate, uneven
| Item | 2025 baseline | 2035 outlook | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capital | Rising family office & sovereign‑linked capital (GCC), selective PE elsewhere | More buy‑and‑build in services/healthcare | Local champions consolidate; cross‑border within regions |
| Process maturity | Fragmented | Professionalises around hubs | Hubs: UAE/KSA, SA/KE/NG, MX/BR/CO/CL |
| Brokerage revenue CAGR | — | +4% to +7% | Higher in GCC & Pacific Alliance; lower where FX volatility bites |
| Key actions | Anchor in legal/finance hubs; partner with family offices; price FX risk; build sector expertise (clinics, logistics, blue‑collar B2B services). | ||
Global Scenarios (Rates, Credit, Policy)
| Scenario | Macro | Effect on Brokerage | Tactical moves |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | Faster rate cuts; lender risk‑on | Higher multiples; faster time‑to‑close; higher broker participation | Scale buyer lists; pre‑underwrite SBA/guarantee‑backed deals; increase marketing |
| Base | Gradual normalisation | Steady volume; modest multiple expansion | Keep pricing discipline; expand lender bench; improve CIM/data‑room quality |
| Bear | Sticky rates; credit shocks | Longer timelines; earn‑outs/seller notes rise; more broken processes | Pre‑screen buyer funds; favour resilient niches; widen valuation bands; use escrow/holdbacks |
Signals to Watch
- Demographics: owner age distributions, retirement surveys, succession programme intake.
- Credit: SBA/guarantee programme volumes, bank lending standards, PE fundraising.
- Policy: national succession platforms (e.g., tender exchanges), incentives/tax for transfers.
- Market plumbing: growth of online marketplaces, broker franchise expansion, diligence tooling adoption.
Broker Capacity & What to Build
- Succession desks (JP/EU): owner outreach, valuation clinic, successor matching, lender packs.
- Cross‑border pods (SEA/MEA/LatAm): bilingual packaging, legalised NDAs, inbound buyer syndication.
- Bankability ops: recast financials → defendable SDE/EBITDA; covenant‑aware deal structures.
- Post‑close plans: 30–90‑day transition maps to de‑risk continuity for lenders/buyers.
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